xm411.com - When will XMSR annouce 3 million ??

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bullseye
I sleep here

Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 2161

When will XMSR annouce 3 million ??

I did a bit of calculating, and I firmly believe the earliest will be Monday Dec 13th.

This is based on adding 700,000 subs and approximately 50% are added in December.

I think both of these assumptions are reasonable.

The latest should be Monday Dec. 20th !!

Anyone have a good estimate ?

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:43 pm

Nickel II
I sleep here

Joined: 07 Feb 2004
Posts: 3555
Location: Sunny San Diego
Primary Radio: Inno

Capn posted on earlier using his growth model that marked Dec. 13 as the date to watch.

Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:18 pm

Capn
I sleep here

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 5232

Actually I said Dec 20th was my estimate of the 3.0M mark.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 1:21 pm

PopRocks22
I live Here

Joined: 16 Feb 2004
Posts: 375
Location: Concord, NC

Dec 23rd or possibly Dec 27th (First business day after Christmas) is my bet, it could be earlier , but I'm guessing they hit dead on 3.1 million with +50% of Dec subs being activated from Dec 23 - Jan 1.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:07 pm

Capn
I sleep here

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 5232

Without going back and listening to the cc again: My takeaway impression was that the YE subs would not be announced until CES. They didn't say anything about the 3.0M milestone so I assume they will probably make that announcement. I hope so. I would prefer they didn't play games with the 1M milestone marks and just call them as they happen. But when they come close to the end of the quarter they tend to be a little fuzzy - like saying "earlier in the month we passed the 2M subscriber mark".
It seems for some reason they don't want competitors to be able to parse out daily rates too accurately.

I am thinking a Wednesday announcement, but actually hitting on Monday.
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?p=198273&highlight=#198273

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:11 pm

Capn
I sleep here

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 5232

quote:
Originally posted by PopRocks22:

quote:
Originally posted by Capn:
3.0M announcment should be in about a week I think - if they do one. I would expect Friday to be the earliest credible date for an announcement. SIRI's 900K will come within a few days of XM's announcement.

That brings up a very good point. We should hear Sirius's 900,000 any day now. If it happens this week look for them to go over 1 million very comfortablely, but if we don't hear anything until the tail end of next week then it will be a nail biter for Sirius to hit the million before the new year...

Another question would be, what if Sirius and XM don’t issue press releases until CES?

Sorry I revived 2 threads on the same subject. Let's stick with the 3.0M Milestone thread - This one.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:40 pm

Capn
I sleep here

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 5232

quote:
Originally posted by MikeV:
Personally, I'm not expecting any announcements until CES. I would expect late next week would be a likely point that they reach 3M, but between the holidays and CES being so close, I think XM would rather drop a big bombshell with all of their news, including their YE total, at once.

- Mike

It won't be a bombshell unless they blow through 3.2M. No doubt they want to accumulate news worthy things to say at CES, but they might find it difficult to restrain from a 3M announcement, especially is SIRI does a 900K PR. I don't know.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:44 pm

DesertRat
XM411 Community Leader

Joined: 07 Feb 2004
Posts: 2044

Primary Radio: SkyFi2

I fully expect SIRI to have PRs at 900k and 1M. I'm not certain about XM. The 3M mark is a clearly a major milestone. I'd expect an announcement on that event. The YE data would likely be held off to CES.

As to the 3M mark, I'm sticking to my estimate of a Dec 21 announcement. MyFi sales moved it up a few days in my model.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 6:28 pm

Nickel II
I sleep here

Joined: 07 Feb 2004
Posts: 3555
Location: Sunny San Diego
Primary Radio: Inno

I think they almost have to do a 3m announcement. It retains investor confidence heading into CES and year end counts. If they don't do a 3m announcement, I would begin to get worried.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:15 pm

PopRocks22
I live Here

Joined: 16 Feb 2004
Posts: 375
Location: Concord, NC

quote:
Originally posted by DesertRat:
I fully expect SIRI to have PRs at 900k and 1M. I'm not certain about XM. The 3M mark is a clearly a major milestone. I'd expect an announcement on that event. The YE data would likely be held off to CES.

As to the 3M mark, I'm sticking to my estimate of a Dec 21 announcement. MyFi sales moved it up a few days in my model.

Just a question, and not meant to sound sarcastic. How do you have a "model" and not know how many Myfi's XM is producing? Is there a source that I don't know about that tells that info, or is that estimate strictly a guess you just bumped up a bit due to the product selling so quickly? Since you have a model are you factoring in cannibalization with this product?

The reason I ask is that in my BB and CC checks lately the stores are only receiving 8-10 Myfi's per week all are sold before they hit the floor, but they aren't hitting with the numbers I think they should be. I also think both companies (XM and Sirius) completely missed the boat when it comes to demand for their products, CC and BB share the blame on that point also. At lunch today I checked my local BB XM is completely sold out on everything except for the Audiovox, Sirius has no Sportsters or Xacts, and only has JVC’s left to pick from. This is in contrast to a week and a half ago when both had over 100 units in stock.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:16 pm

bullseye
I sleep here

Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 2161

my local store

My local store has plenty of stock except for Sirius Sportster.

And the Roady 2's are NOT selling. A whole bunch have been there for over 2 weeks. (maybe sold 5 of them)

I think I live in a slow area for Sat Radio. Watertown, MA

Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:58 pm

Nickel II
I sleep here

Joined: 07 Feb 2004
Posts: 3555
Location: Sunny San Diego
Primary Radio: Inno

Re: my local store

quote:
Originally posted by bullseye:
My local store has plenty of stock except for Sirius Sportster.

And the Roady 2's are NOT selling. A whole bunch have been there for over 2 weeks. (maybe sold 5 of them)

I think I live in a slow area for Sat Radio. Watertown, MA

\

bullesye, how do you know they are not selling? The rack could be restocked everyday for all you know...unless you work there...and if you do, ignore me. Wink

Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:02 pm

bullseye
I sleep here

Joined: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 2161

I look daily

Trust me... the display looks exactly the same, untouched !

Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:09 pm

GroundPilot
XM Rules my life

Joined: 08 Feb 2004
Posts: 710

Tonight Sioux Falls, SD BBY salesman (I'm visiting) spent some time with me on SatRad. He said:
- SatRad is selling wildy well. A big standout hit this year.
- MyFi's sell out within hours, at most , after arriving. Said a lot of people are just deciding to come back after holidays, in January.
- When XM's cardboard display/inventory arrived, XM's sold out.
- In general, SIRI and XM trade places in popularity week to week
- But in general, SIRI inventory remains overall more available than XM.

Also, WMT across the street had R2's for $94.34, BBY for $99.

Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:30 pm

TDayF1
XM411 Nut!

Joined: 18 May 2004
Posts: 173

Sounds like it's coming down to a supply issue at most places across the country. Come on Delphi and XM, how much can you produce? Burn the midnight oil!!!

Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:06 am

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		Author	Thread
		bullseye I sleep here Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2161	When will XMSR annouce 3 million ?? I did a bit of calculating, and I firmly believe the earliest will be Monday Dec 13th. This is based on adding 700,000 subs and approximately 50% are added in December. I think both of these assumptions are reasonable. The latest should be Monday Dec. 20th !! Anyone have a good estimate ?
		Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:43 pm
		Nickel II I sleep here Joined: 07 Feb 2004 Posts: 3555 Location: Sunny San Diego Primary Radio: Inno	Capn posted on earlier using his growth model that marked Dec. 13 as the date to watch.
		Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:18 pm
		Capn I sleep here Joined: 08 Feb 2004 Posts: 5232	Actually I said Dec 20th was my estimate of the 3.0M mark.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 1:21 pm
		PopRocks22 I live Here Joined: 16 Feb 2004 Posts: 375 Location: Concord, NC	Dec 23rd or possibly Dec 27th (First business day after Christmas) is my bet, it could be earlier , but I'm guessing they hit dead on 3.1 million with +50% of Dec subs being activated from Dec 23 - Jan 1.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:07 pm
		Capn I sleep here Joined: 08 Feb 2004 Posts: 5232	Without going back and listening to the cc again: My takeaway impression was that the YE subs would not be announced until CES. They didn't say anything about the 3.0M milestone so I assume they will probably make that announcement. I hope so. I would prefer they didn't play games with the 1M milestone marks and just call them as they happen. But when they come close to the end of the quarter they tend to be a little fuzzy - like saying "earlier in the month we passed the 2M subscriber mark". It seems for some reason they don't want competitors to be able to parse out daily rates too accurately. I am thinking a Wednesday announcement, but actually hitting on Monday. http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?p=198273&highlight=#198273
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:11 pm
		Capn I sleep here Joined: 08 Feb 2004 Posts: 5232	quote: Originally posted by PopRocks22: quote: Originally posted by Capn: 3.0M announcment should be in about a week I think - if they do one. I would expect Friday to be the earliest credible date for an announcement. SIRI's 900K will come within a few days of XM's announcement. That brings up a very good point. We should hear Sirius's 900,000 any day now. If it happens this week look for them to go over 1 million very comfortablely, but if we don't hear anything until the tail end of next week then it will be a nail biter for Sirius to hit the million before the new year... Another question would be, what if Sirius and XM don’t issue press releases until CES? Sorry I revived 2 threads on the same subject. Let's stick with the 3.0M Milestone thread - This one.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:40 pm
		Capn I sleep here Joined: 08 Feb 2004 Posts: 5232	quote: Originally posted by MikeV: Personally, I'm not expecting any announcements until CES. I would expect late next week would be a likely point that they reach 3M, but between the holidays and CES being so close, I think XM would rather drop a big bombshell with all of their news, including their YE total, at once. - Mike It won't be a bombshell unless they blow through 3.2M. No doubt they want to accumulate news worthy things to say at CES, but they might find it difficult to restrain from a 3M announcement, especially is SIRI does a 900K PR. I don't know.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:44 pm
		DesertRat XM411 Community Leader Joined: 07 Feb 2004 Posts: 2044 Primary Radio: SkyFi2	I fully expect SIRI to have PRs at 900k and 1M. I'm not certain about XM. The 3M mark is a clearly a major milestone. I'd expect an announcement on that event. The YE data would likely be held off to CES. As to the 3M mark, I'm sticking to my estimate of a Dec 21 announcement. MyFi sales moved it up a few days in my model.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 6:28 pm
		Nickel II I sleep here Joined: 07 Feb 2004 Posts: 3555 Location: Sunny San Diego Primary Radio: Inno	I think they almost have to do a 3m announcement. It retains investor confidence heading into CES and year end counts. If they don't do a 3m announcement, I would begin to get worried.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:15 pm
		PopRocks22 I live Here Joined: 16 Feb 2004 Posts: 375 Location: Concord, NC	quote: Originally posted by DesertRat: I fully expect SIRI to have PRs at 900k and 1M. I'm not certain about XM. The 3M mark is a clearly a major milestone. I'd expect an announcement on that event. The YE data would likely be held off to CES. As to the 3M mark, I'm sticking to my estimate of a Dec 21 announcement. MyFi sales moved it up a few days in my model. Just a question, and not meant to sound sarcastic. How do you have a "model" and not know how many Myfi's XM is producing? Is there a source that I don't know about that tells that info, or is that estimate strictly a guess you just bumped up a bit due to the product selling so quickly? Since you have a model are you factoring in cannibalization with this product? The reason I ask is that in my BB and CC checks lately the stores are only receiving 8-10 Myfi's per week all are sold before they hit the floor, but they aren't hitting with the numbers I think they should be. I also think both companies (XM and Sirius) completely missed the boat when it comes to demand for their products, CC and BB share the blame on that point also. At lunch today I checked my local BB XM is completely sold out on everything except for the Audiovox, Sirius has no Sportsters or Xacts, and only has JVC’s left to pick from. This is in contrast to a week and a half ago when both had over 100 units in stock.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:16 pm
		bullseye I sleep here Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2161	my local store My local store has plenty of stock except for Sirius Sportster. And the Roady 2's are NOT selling. A whole bunch have been there for over 2 weeks. (maybe sold 5 of them) I think I live in a slow area for Sat Radio. Watertown, MA
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:58 pm
		Nickel II I sleep here Joined: 07 Feb 2004 Posts: 3555 Location: Sunny San Diego Primary Radio: Inno	Re: my local store quote: Originally posted by bullseye: My local store has plenty of stock except for Sirius Sportster. And the Roady 2's are NOT selling. A whole bunch have been there for over 2 weeks. (maybe sold 5 of them) I think I live in a slow area for Sat Radio. Watertown, MA \ bullesye, how do you know they are not selling? The rack could be restocked everyday for all you know...unless you work there...and if you do, ignore me.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:02 pm
		bullseye I sleep here Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2161	I look daily Trust me... the display looks exactly the same, untouched !
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:09 pm
		GroundPilot XM Rules my life Joined: 08 Feb 2004 Posts: 710	Tonight Sioux Falls, SD BBY salesman (I'm visiting) spent some time with me on SatRad. He said: - SatRad is selling wildy well. A big standout hit this year. - MyFi's sell out within hours, at most , after arriving. Said a lot of people are just deciding to come back after holidays, in January. - When XM's cardboard display/inventory arrived, XM's sold out. - In general, SIRI and XM trade places in popularity week to week - But in general, SIRI inventory remains overall more available than XM. Also, WMT across the street had R2's for $94.34, BBY for $99.
		Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:30 pm
		TDayF1 XM411 Nut! Joined: 18 May 2004 Posts: 173	Sounds like it's coming down to a supply issue at most places across the country. Come on Delphi and XM, how much can you produce? Burn the midnight oil!!!
		Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:06 am